It Smells Like World War III

Article published in Cafebabel

Heavy shelling to Islamic States militants in Mosul. Neal Bhai © Flickr

The “cold war” atmosphere is spreading across the West and the East while we witness deep changes in Europe. The economic crisis, which unleashed the downfall of many sovereign states in Europe contributing to the rise of populist and far-extreme parties along with the civil war in Syria, has changed the political and international world scenario. 

On the 5th February, the British paper The Telegraph published “Putin could attack Baltic states warns former Nato chief”. According to Mr. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Putin’s excessive ambition could lead to a Russian attack over Eastern Europe. 

On the 6th February, the European EUObserver wrote “Nato to open facilities on Russia's doorstep”. The list includes bases in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania as well as a “training center” in Georgia. The aim is to create a defensive line between Eastern Europe and Russia. At this point, it is important to look back at history and see how the mainstream media have influenced the conflicts and wars from the past with terror campaigns in order to prepare the population. My humble opinion tells me that this looks openly like a defense maneuver. But let us move on. 

Syrian Civil War 

Since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, in 2011, little was done by the international community to stop the slaughter besides sanctions and diplomatic warnings. In the beginning, the UK was in favour of an international military intervention, while France and Germany were against it. Later, prime minister David Cameron changed his mind, after considering the hypotheses of an Islamic revolutionary army as a result. As for the United States, Obama was always against ground intervention, bearing in mind Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, the American leader has adopted a different stance trying the diplomatic way, even after being proven the use of chemical weapons in Syria. 

On the leaked “Syria Files” from Wikileaks, we can read a political communication from US Brown Lloyd James, a powerful global strategic communication enterprise, dated May 2011, to Fares Kalla, a consultant inside the Private Office of the First Lady, expressing that “it is clear from US government pronouncements since the beginning of the public demonstrations in Syria that the Obama Administration wants the leadership in Syria to survive. Unlike its response to demonstrations in some other countries in the region, there have been no US demands for regime change in Syria nor any calls for military intervention. Criticism has been relatively muted and punitive sanctions - by not being aimed directly at President Assad - have been intended more as a caution than as an instrument to hurt the leadership.” 

Diplomacy. Maxime Bonzi © Flickr 

I am not apologist of military interventions in sovereign countries and I am against all forms of attempt to “colonize” independent yet fragile and unstable countries. International cooperation should be regardless of any kind of reward. I saw the international coalition against ISIS as a good attempt of trying to eradicate the extremist fanatic Islamic group, but we can’t help thinking of all the side effects caused by the airstrikes. Nevertheless, it has been shown that the air coalition has not been very effective. 

But something has changed recently. After the atrocious killing of the Jordanian pilot by ISIS, Jordanian air forces are repeatedly striking the Islamic State’s targets determined to eliminate the self-proclaimed caliphate and revenge its citizen. After being criticized of doing little to stop the Islamic State threat, the United Kingdom is about to send 2,000 special forces to help Jordan in this fight against ISIS. 

Divided European Union 

Meanwhile, we see a feeble Europe, we see a European Union not so united anymore, with Greece as the number one country who decided to shake up the Union a little bit. After extreme-left Syriza’s won the elections and since then pursued the end of the austerity, the South of Europe, hopeful of a debt release, are raising their voices against Germany, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, determined to block Greece’s attempt of reducing the debt. This led us to the recent approximation between Greek prime minister Tsipras and Russian president Vladimir Putin. 

The Eastern Block 

Putin has shown interest in collaborating with Greece after inviting Tsipras for a ceremony in Moscow on the 9th of May. In fact, the international community was caught by surprise after Tsipras’ victory had announced Greece’s objection on sanctioning Russia, but after all, Greece has decided to accept the EU’s statement regarding the sanctions towards Russia. Greek finance minister said “the problem was that he [Tsipras], and the new Greek government, were never asked [about the statement]!". 

We also see an authoritarian and repressive Hungarian government closer and closer to Russia. It is important to highlight that Greece, Hungary and Turkey are NATO members, with the latter having the 8th most powerful military army in the world (Russia occupies 2nd place in the ranking). 

But the pro-Russian block had another sudden ally after Cyprus president, Nikos Anastasiadis, had offered Russia Cyprian territory to implement military bases. Cyprus is a member state of the European Union, however, its president has been very clear against further sanctions towards Russia due to the Ukrainian conflict. Thus, we see an apprehensive United States towards Iran, trying to influence public opinion on how dangerous a country can be with WMD (remember Iraq?). Putin’s Russia knows he can count on both Saudi Arabia and China. 

Conclusions 

When speaking about international relations we can only formulate ideas based on our interpretation of the facts. Nothing is certain and what is today might not be tomorrow. But one thing is guaranteed on the current political and international scenario: we are assisting to a world division shaped by different interests and ideologies, but above all by the desire of world dominance. The United States are losing their characteristic superpower tag and Russia is emerging and making new friends. For the moment the European Union is battling to preserve peace, not only in Europe but across borders, yet the “economic war” imposed on its citizens has also contributed to the debate on whether Europe is good or not. I’m convinced we will witness big changes worldwide in the coming future.

Mild snow in Budapest

Between Buda and Pest in a drizzling day. © Marta Pacheco

Hungarians against Orbán demand for Democracy

Article published in Cafebabel

Hungarians protesting on the national holiday, 15th March 2007. Habeebee © Flickr

The Hungarian people are not sleeping. Tired of corruption and lack of transparency, another protest will take place while Chancellor Angela Merkel pops up for an official visit. 

Hungary against the System 

When Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is ranked in second place by the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), we understand the swingeing concern that Hungarian citizens are going through. On the top of the table is, naturally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Orban’s good friend. 

White House Vigil To Save Net Neutrality White House Vigil To Save Net Neutrality | (cc) Stephen Melkisethian/Flickr 

The problem in Hungary is dramatic as the whole system is enrooted in corruption. In one of many public demonstrations, last October, the citizen protest was against the government’s intention of taxing internet traffic, the biggest anti-government protest in the past four years, but the problems in the country go beyond that. The Hungarian people live in “pitch black” when it comes to institutional decisions, blind by a government with no respect towards the citizens. The New Year began with more protests asking for democracy, in Budapest. Activists said Orbán was not representing public interests in his policies, the Associated Press reported, regarding his efforts to tax the Internet.

Hungarians have condemned Orbán, also leader of conservative party Fidesz, for what they perceive as governmental corruption. Fidesz holds a two-thirds majority in parliament, which in 2013 allowed Orbán to pass a new constitution that centralized power. Under this system, and despite constant protests which are systematically ignored, he appointed people to lead the court system, the bank and the media. Before this picture, it looks more like Hungary is still living under a Soviet regime. 

The hope and solution for this scourge could be found in civic groups like MostMi! (NowUs!). Nevertheless, the question whether this political movement has a future remains among the analysts as one of the founders, Zsolt Várady, announced his withdrawal due to the lack of time and divergences with the other founder, Bori Takács. The non-partisan movement is currently in a fragile situation not promising great expectations in order to change the society. 

Merkel and Putin to visit Hungary 

In July 2014, the Hungarian government has reached a deal with Russia regarding the Paks nuclear power plant and a related 10 billion euros Russian state loan. With this agreement, Hungary’s gas storage facilities would be sold to Russia’s Gazprom increasing the country’s dependence on Russia. Opposition tried to scrap the Pak contract but without success. 

In an unusual criticism of Orban’s policies from a member of his own party, Zsolt Nemeth, chairman of Parliament’s Foreign Policy Committee said that Hungary should make it clearly about its relationship with Russia, which according Nemeth is becoming far… 

The next protest is scheduled for the 2nd of February, on the occasion of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to Budapest. But it is not only Merkel the expected visit. Putin is also in the guest list scheduled for the 17th of February.

Europe in a State of Siege

Article published in Cafebabel

Europe is reinforcing security measures following the Charlie Hebdo attack. Bostankorkulugu © Flickr

Europe is assuming a defensive stance towards the imminent jihadist threat. After 9/11, the attack at Charlie Hebdo has sounded the alarm in most European countries. 

More than ever, we are living now in a sleepless Europe, a territory with a high threat of terrorism. Europe has its eyes wide open and the European heads of state are currently working on ways to assure an impenetrable European Union. From France to Belgium, from the United Kingdom to Germany and Spain, the alarm has sounded and security measures will be taken. 

On the Old Continent 

In France, place of the tragic events at Charlie Hebdo, the threat level is high. All the synagogues and Jewish schools are under surveillance by police or security agents. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy expressed his concern and advised François Hollande to adopt the PNR system, or the collection of data given to airlines, a system blocked at the European level. Sarkozy went further saying that people who left France to go on jihadi missions should not be allowed to return the country and the municipal police should be armed. Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing Front National, pointed out the urgency of controlling the borders. 

This past weekend in Verviers, in the east of Belgium, an anti-terror raid left two dead and one detained in an operation aimed to prevent a terror attack in the capital, Brussels. The threat level was raised from two to three, on a scale where the maximum is four. 

  Surveillance. Fabian © Flickr 

Under a new draft law, Germany can soon confiscate the ID’s of suspected terrorists. If the proposal becomes law, it would allow the retention of a personal ID for up to three years, a confinement sentence as the target would be forbidden to travel. Moreover, the German police in Berlin detained two men on suspicions of recruiting fighters for the Islamic State and collecting funds for the extremist group. 

British Prime Minister David Cameron has already met with security, intelligence and supervising military leaders in order to assess the risk of an attack. Future exercises will be put into practice in order to prepare the country. This concern comes in a difficult time for the UK, in a fragile political environment as it is close to the general elections. 

In Spain, where recently the threat level was also raised from two to three, the government and the socialists from Spanish Socialist Workers' Party are working on a 'State Pact' aimed at tackling jihadist terrorism. 

American support will be provided to Europe in a "state of siege". Cameron was speaking in Washington before formal talks with President Obama that centred on cyber-security in light of the recent events in France and calls from British security services for more power to interrupt communications. 

We can’t assume anymore that it is safe to live in Europe when many extremists are coming back from Syria and Iraq, brainwashed and trained to spread terror. The EU estimates that of around 10,000 fighters in crisis regions, over 3,000 radicals Islamists are from Europe. 

The mainstream media, a clear servant in the service of terrorists, somehow contributes to increasing fear among the population. But it is important to note that European security is doing significant work. Not only in Paris, but recently in Belgium and in Berlin, the attackers were detained or killed. In the Belgian case, the police was able to act before tragedy struck. However, whether counter-terrorism becomes a threat to our basic privacy and liberty rights is something that has already been spoken about at European level, with the Spanish government suggesting the re-introduction of internal border checks. As a reaction, the German and Italian governments protested saying that such change will not be considered. 

Across the Oceans 

In Australia (December 2014) and in Canada (October 2014), terrorist attacks in the name of a radical Islamist ideology also occurred. 

The Canadian statement, regarding the attack on a soldier killed when guarding Canada’s National War Memorial in Ottawa, was remarkable. "This week's events are a grim reminder that Canada is not immune to the types of terrorist attacks we have seen elsewhere in the world," Prime Minister Stephen Harper said at the time. "Let there be no misunderstanding: We will not be intimidated. Canada will never be intimidated." Harper’s speech following the tragic incident made clear that his country would not adopt an aggressive defense registry. The threat is global and therefore a global response to tackle terrorism must spring up. 

Buda & Pest

 The commonly known Parliament of Budapest © Marta Pacheco

Budapest by night

View over the Danube

Hungarian National Museum

Freakin' Stalin 

 Interior of a local bar

  Interior of a local bar

  Interior of a local bar

 Red dress hanged on the street

Budapest lift

European Union Has Its Eyes On Greece

Article published in Cafebabel

Protestors in Greece, 2012. Josefcramer.com © Flickr

In two weeks, Greece’s trajectory might see a deep change in its modus operandi. With the left-wing party Syriza promising a debt renegotiation, the future of Europe might be unveiled on January 25th. 

After three unsuccessful voting rounds for presidential elections, Greece was pushed to parliamentary elections to be held on January 25th. Opinion polls show a victory by the left-wing party Syriza, known for its radicalism and anti-austerity ideology. Alexis Tsipras, Syriza’s leader, has already manifested his intention of wiping out part of the Greek debt as well as cancelling the terms of the bailout imposed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. "With the will of our people, in a few days bailouts tied to austerity will be a thing of the past," said Tsipras. However, the future is uncertain with Samara’s Conservative New Democracy gaining more prominence. This political pandemonium in Greece is worrying the financial markets, but Alex Tsipras has promised to keep Greece in the euro and renegotiate the debt instead of completely ignoring it. 

According to the latest polls, Syriza is leading the elections followed by the centre-right New Democracy. The communist KKE ranks third and the centre-left To Potami fourth. The extreme far-right Golden Dawn is ahead of PASOK, the centre-left coalition partner. The great new (or recent trend of the countries affected by the crisis) was the creation of a new political party, the Movement of Democratic Socialists, by former Prime Minister George Papandreou. This new bloc deserves some consideration as it might steal votes from both the weak PASOK and feared Syriza. Nevertheless, there’s always the possibility of governmental coalitions and there’s nothing that we can do but speculate while waiting for the elections’ outcomes. 

 Alexis Tsipras. Bulge-Luver © Flickr 

Europe is clearly apprehensive and different stances towards Greece are taking shape. The European left is supporting Greece and the end of austerity measures. Submissive countries reporting to autocratic entities is not the desired scenario for the leftists, let alone for the other Southern countries affected by this attack to their sovereignty such as Portugal, Spain and Cyprus. On the one hand, if Syriza succeeds, this could be the beginning of an economic and financial renegotiation, potentially unlocking Greece's deflated economy. On the other hand, the fear of an increased and cumulative debt has risen with the apprehension of what will happen if Greece doesn’t pay. Will it become the responsibility of other European states? 

Let us go back in History and recall the London Debts Agreements in 1953, a political treaty enabling Germany to re-enter the markets and to evolve as a nation after the catastrophic consequences of World War II. Greece was involved in this renegotiation, which provided Germany serious debt relief and eventually, allowed the country to prosper again. This is Alexis Tsipras' idea for the future of Greece and Europe. If history is cyclic, why not repeat the good deeds instead of only disasters and crisis?

Some Thoughts on the Attack of Charlie Hebdo

Article published in Cafebabel

Supporting the victims of the terror attack, Place Luxembourg in Brussels. Valentina Calá © Flickr

Returning from vacation with good expectations for the coming year, my thoughts were put in perspective by the cruel attack at the French satirical weekly “Charlie Hebdo” in Paris. 

The 7th of January 2015 will not be forgotten: it will be part of History. Twelve lives were mowed down, twelve human beings were caught by surprise by three armed men who brutally ended their lives. Why? Because of a satirical drawing of the Islamic prophet. We have just reached the worrying point where fanaticism has clashed with the basic fundamentals of freedom of expression. 

Despite not having real evidence, we do know that this was a clear terrorist attack in the name of Islam. Not only because we heard “Allahu Akbar” in one of the recorded videos from a citizen but also by the evident sequence of the attack, right after the publication of an edition satirizing “Muhammad”. 

Before this outrageous happening, I stress some important points to take into account. First, we should not condemn the Islamic community as a whole (especially not knowing a lot of important details of this tragedy). We already heard several Islamic voices condemning this carnage, showing their support for the victims and their families. Moreover, a couple of days before the attack at “Charlie Hebdo”, we witnessed massive support from German citizens against the Pegida Movement, an anti-Islamic collective group, in Dresden and in Köln. We see here a mobilization and support towards Muslims which represents how civilized Europe can be when the matter is of extreme importance. Nonetheless, after the brutal attack, we saw several mosques become targets of vandalism in Europe. Is this the correct response? Absolutely not. 

By committing these acts, terrorists seek to spread fear among citizens and governments. They shall not win. We know that terrorists' acts are necessarily connected with the mainstream media. We know the mainstream media lives from tragic situations like what happened in “Charlie Hebdo”, we know the mainstream media need these situations to live, but now, we do know how this disgraceful happening has shocked all the journalistic community. All the support coming from several newspapers’ staff has been impressive and encouraging. They will not forget, they will not forgive.

The Western community looks at “Charlie Hebdo” as the new 9/11 and this will have repercussions all over Europe. To begin with, the security policies will now be stricter than ever. Rules over migration will be firmer as well. But a concerning question is popping up across the European Union: will the extreme far-right parties in Europe gain with this chaotic feeling of insecurity? Unfortunately the answer seems to be positive as this widespread fear appears to be strong enough for people to pin their hopes on discriminative and xenophobic policies.